Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.61 – 48.27

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.5 ±18

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 84.09Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9668Malfunctionz

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 29.67Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3843ROBO RACERS

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 4.85Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.6 ±16

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 49.68Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3821Pirabots

Provisional

Season APEX 13.6Event APEX -20.71Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 19.3Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4674, 9668, 3843

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4674, 9668, 3843

Auto

21.8 17%

Teleop

81.2 63%

Endgame

26.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7525, 3821, 9097

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7525, 3821, 9097

Auto

27.0 57%

Teleop

21.3 45%

Endgame

-0.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.6pts

Blue projected score48.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.3
Score range: 27–140
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.5Season APEX313.6

21.8Auto27

81.2Teleop21.3

26.2Endgame-0.7

54Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	44
teleop	66	25
endgame	56	20
foul	0	5
total	146	94

Result

Final score

146 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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