Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.29 – 55.93

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.1 ±15.8

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 39.53Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1445Webb Spark

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 17.01Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 55.75Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.4 ±15.6

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 17.13Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 14.76Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 24.04Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1038, 1445, 4013

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1038, 1445, 4013

Auto

9.8 9%

Teleop

64.0 58%

Endgame

35.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7917, 4265, 3138

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7917, 4265, 3138

Auto

7.6 16%

Teleop

26.6 57%

Endgame

12.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.3pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.4
Score range: 35–133
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.1Season APEX316.4

9.8Auto7.6

64Teleop26.6

35.7Endgame12.2

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	7
teleop	65	24
endgame	26	33
foul	0	0
total	129	64

Result

Final score

129 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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