Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.06 – 137.56

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±17

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 19.77Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 41.83Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11275Defenders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 14.46Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±13.9

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 25.19Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 17.49Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 94.88Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9152, 4576, 11275

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9152, 4576, 11275

Auto

19.6 26%

Teleop

27.8 37%

Endgame

27.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3824, 3814, 3102

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3824, 3814, 3102

Auto

27.4 20%

Teleop

69.3 51%

Endgame

39.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.1pts

Blue projected score137.6pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.5
Score range: 55–159
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.8Season APEX295.5

19.6Auto27.4

27.8Teleop69.3

27.2Endgame39.3

19Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	39
teleop	22	29
endgame	14	34
foul	0	15
total	57	117

Result

Final score

57 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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