Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.58 – 44.97

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.6 ±12.8

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 7.83Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 124.26Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 24.49Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.1 ±17

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 11.58Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

547Falcon Engineering And Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX -4.6Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 37.99Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3984, 2783, 5492

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3984, 2783, 5492

Auto

36.7 24%

Teleop

76.7 50%

Endgame

41.2 27%

Strengths

· 2783 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6302, 547, 4504

/ 100 compat

Projected

45 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6302, 547, 4504

Auto

9.4 38%

Teleop

7.3 30%

Endgame

7.8 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.6pts

Blue projected score45pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.6
Score range: 24–178
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.6Season APEX255.1

36.7Auto9.4

76.7Teleop7.3

41.2Endgame7.8

92Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	9
teleop	104	19
endgame	51	12
foul	0	5
total	198	45

Result

Final score

198 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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