Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.94 – 119.73

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.3 ±19.2

11337Mystery Machines

Provisional

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 21.96Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 20.29Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6774Oh-Kno Robo

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 12.69Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.7 ±17.3

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 66.45Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 30.73Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 22.55Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11337, 3140, 6774

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11337, 3140, 6774

Auto

19.7 32%

Teleop

22.5 37%

Endgame

18.9 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3966, 2856, 7516

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3966, 2856, 7516

Auto

13.7 14%

Teleop

64.1 64%

Endgame

22.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.9pts

Blue projected score119.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.8
Score range: 33–142
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.3Season APEX346.7

19.7Auto13.7

22.5Teleop64.1

18.9Endgame22.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	20
teleop	25	68
endgame	8	16
foul	5	0
total	61	104

Result

Final score

61 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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