Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.23 – 170.4

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.7 ±13

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 143.38Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX -0.23Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 23.08Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.1 ±15.6

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 33Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 128.14Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5744RoboRunners

Provisional

Season APEX 64Event APEX 9.26Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 1369, 5276

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 1369, 5276

Auto

31.7 19%

Teleop

89.4 53%

Endgame

48.1 28%

Strengths

· 4065 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1466, 6517, 5744

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1466, 6517, 5744

Auto

25.7 17%

Teleop

87.9 58%

Endgame

39.1 26%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.2pts

Blue projected score170.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.2
Score range: 145–191
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.7Season APEX431.1

31.7Auto25.7

89.4Teleop87.9

48.1Endgame39.1

33Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	62
teleop	70	107
endgame	61	43
foul	10	0
total	166	212

Result

Final score

166 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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