Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.9 – 124.63

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.4 ±16.5

9668Malfunctionz

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 30.49Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 38.76Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 19.65Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.8 ±15.6

8778HSUWerx

Provisional

Season APEX 13.2Event APEX 11.06Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 25.57Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 88Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9668, 1038, 9097

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9668, 1038, 9097

Auto

24.6 25%

Teleop

41.3 42%

Endgame

31.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8778, 3959, 3492

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8778, 3959, 3492

Auto

15.3 13%

Teleop

69.4 60%

Endgame

30.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.9pts

Blue projected score124.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.7
Score range: 68–146
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.4Season APEX346.8

24.6Auto15.3

41.3Teleop69.4

31.5Endgame30.4

8Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	16
teleop	59	68
endgame	6	31
foul	0	0
total	93	115

Result

Final score

93 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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