Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.98 – 69.52

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.2 ±16

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 25.81Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 14.07Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11275Defenders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 16.1Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.4 ±16.6

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 40.88Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 25.3Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3843ROBO RACERS

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 3.34Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7111, 7428, 11275

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7111, 7428, 11275

Auto

13.3 24%

Teleop

32.8 58%

Endgame

10.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 379, 3824, 3843

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 379, 3824, 3843

Auto

8.9 11%

Teleop

52.1 67%

Endgame

16.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56pts

Blue projected score69.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.5
Score range: 34–92
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.2Season APEX281.4

13.3Auto8.9

32.8Teleop52.1

10.2Endgame16.7

53Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	16
teleop	15	30
endgame	17	18
foul	0	0
total	53	64

Result

Final score

53 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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