Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.95 – 97.9

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.3 ±17

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 20.46Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 34.72Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

547Falcon Engineering And Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX -1.23Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.3 ±18

6774Oh-Kno Robo

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 9.2Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 72.93Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11275Defenders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 15.77Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4265, 3959, 547

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4265, 3959, 547

Auto

10.0 18%

Teleop

41.9 74%

Endgame

5.0 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6774, 3492, 11275

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6774, 3492, 11275

Auto

25.5 26%

Teleop

46.2 47%

Endgame

25.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54pts

Blue projected score97.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.9
Score range: 30–122
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.3Season APEX269.3

10Auto25.5

41.9Teleop46.2

5Endgame25.6

37Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	23
teleop	13	38
endgame	3	39
foul	5	0
total	21	100

Result

Final score

21 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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