Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.5 – 188.55

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.6 ±17.5

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 16.01Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

547Falcon Engineering And Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX -2.36Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 26.85Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.1 ±13.5

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 91.01Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 86.57Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 10.97Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10137, 547, 3138

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10137, 547, 3138

Auto

9.8 21%

Teleop

35.8 78%

Endgame

0.3 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2393, 3102, 9152

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2393, 3102, 9152

Auto

31.7 17%

Teleop

93.4 49%

Endgame

64.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score40.5pts

Blue projected score188.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -148
Score range: 19–211
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.6Season APEX453.1

9.8Auto31.7

35.8Teleop93.4

0.3Endgame64.2

13Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	55
teleop	15	136
endgame	1	60
foul	0	5
total	20	256

Result

Final score

20 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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