Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.26 – 89.56

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.4 ±14.5

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 34.71Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 11.35Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 4.2Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.7 ±16.2

6774Oh-Kno Robo

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 6.42Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 78.16Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 4.98Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4576, 7917, 3984

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4576, 7917, 3984

Auto

8.8 17%

Teleop

25.1 48%

Endgame

18.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6774, 4674, 6302

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6774, 4674, 6302

Auto

8.0 11%

Teleop

35.1 48%

Endgame

29.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.3pts

Blue projected score89.6pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 28–112
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.4Season APEX342.7

8.8Auto8

25.1Teleop35.1

18.1Endgame29.9

43Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	33
teleop	22	80
endgame	22	31
foul	40	0
total	98	144

Result

Final score

98 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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