Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.03 – 209.59

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.8 ±16.3

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 17.39Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 26.81Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 12.83Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.1 ±16.2

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 175.46Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 15.74Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11337Mystery Machines

Provisional

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 18.39Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5492, 2856, 3814

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5492, 2856, 3814

Auto

13.4 42%

Teleop

4.6 14%

Endgame

14.0 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4020, 4265, 11337

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4020, 4265, 11337

Auto

53.4 25%

Teleop

107.2 50%

Endgame

52.4 25%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score209.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.6
Score range: 36–231
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.8Season APEX406.1

13.4Auto53.4

4.6Teleop107.2

14Endgame52.4

18Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	45
teleop	60	136
endgame	33	52
foul	0	0
total	110	233

Result

Final score

110 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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