Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.89 – 144.66

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.9 ±13.9

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 122.42Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1445Webb Spark

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 14.61Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 63.86Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.4 ±18

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 124.32Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4630Robodragons

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 13.18Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5744RoboRunners

Provisional

Season APEX 64Event APEX 7.16Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6517, 1445, 3966

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6517, 1445, 3966

Auto

21.4 12%

Teleop

122.7 68%

Endgame

35.5 20%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2783, 4630, 5744

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2783, 4630, 5744

Auto

36.9 27%

Teleop

67.9 49%

Endgame

34.3 25%

Strengths

· 2783 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score200.9pts

Blue projected score144.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.2
Score range: 124–222
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.9Season APEX377.4

21.4Auto36.9

122.7Teleop67.9

35.5Endgame34.3

8Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	50
teleop	132	69
endgame	83	37
foul	25	10
total	253	166

Result

Final score

253 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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