Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.44 – 128.54

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.6 ±17

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 24.01Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3843ROBO RACERS

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 3.51Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 21.92Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.7 ±14.5

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 81.14Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 9.34Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 38.06Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3959, 3843, 5276

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3959, 3843, 5276

Auto

13.8 26%

Teleop

22.4 42%

Endgame

17.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3102, 10137, 4504

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3102, 10137, 4504

Auto

25.6 21%

Teleop

64.4 52%

Endgame

33.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.4pts

Blue projected score128.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.1
Score range: 28–150
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.6Season APEX293.7

13.8Auto25.6

22.4Teleop64.4

17.5Endgame33.9

30Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	44
teleop	39	81
endgame	14	44
foul	0	0
total	65	169

Result

Final score

65 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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