Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.01 – 60.88

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.2 ±17

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 19.83Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

547Falcon Engineering And Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 0.83Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 12.35Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.1 ±14.5

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 34.3Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 24.38Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 2.2Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9097, 547, 7917

/ 100 compat

Projected

33 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9097, 547, 7917

Auto

18.4 60%

Teleop

6.2 20%

Endgame

6.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4576, 3138, 1369

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4576, 3138, 1369

Auto

18.7 27%

Teleop

39.1 57%

Endgame

10.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33pts

Blue projected score60.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.9
Score range: 12–82
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 117.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.2Season APEX319.1

18.4Auto18.7

6.2Teleop39.1

6.2Endgame10.8

12Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	17	31
endgame	3	35
foul	0	5
total	37	84

Result

Final score

37 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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