Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.22 – 84.06

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.5 ±14.1

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 13.04Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 183.32Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 15.86Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.2 ±13.5

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 66.73Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 6.68Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 10.65Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6302, 4020, 9152

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6302, 4020, 9152

Auto

33.2 19%

Teleop

101.1 56%

Endgame

45.0 25%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4674, 7428, 4265

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4674, 7428, 4265

Auto

4.1 5%

Teleop

55.5 69%

Endgame

21.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score212.2pts

Blue projected score84.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.2
Score range: 63–233
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.5Season APEX379.2

33.2Auto4.1

101.1Teleop55.5

45Endgame21.4

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	26
teleop	51	81
endgame	68	46
foul	0	0
total	172	153

Result

Final score

172 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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