Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.97 – 154.7

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.4 ±12.4

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 128.64Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 19.79Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 64.54Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.3 ±17.3

9668Malfunctionz

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 33.82Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 26.91Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 93.97Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2783, 3814, 3966

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2783, 3814, 3966

Auto

37.8 18%

Teleop

127.1 60%

Endgame

45.3 22%

Strengths

· 2783 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9668, 2856, 2393

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9668, 2856, 2393

Auto

13.6 10%

Teleop

69.6 54%

Endgame

46.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score213pts

Blue projected score154.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.3
Score range: 134–234
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 115.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.4Season APEX330.3

37.8Auto13.6

127.1Teleop69.6

45.3Endgame46.7

36Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	46
teleop	86	79
endgame	60	19
foul	5	0
total	195	144

Result

Final score

195 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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