Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.55 – 53.86

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±17.7

5744RoboRunners

Provisional

Season APEX 64Event APEX 0.95Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3821Pirabots

Provisional

Season APEX 13.6Event APEX -24.54Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 149.14Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234 ±16.5

4630Robodragons

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 12.13Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 2.55Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 39.18Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5744, 3821, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5744, 3821, 4065

Auto

22.7 17%

Teleop

70.9 54%

Endgame

36.8 28%

Strengths

· 4065 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4630, 3984, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4630, 3984, 1038

Auto

5.4 9%

Teleop

29.1 49%

Endgame

24.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.5pts

Blue projected score53.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.7
Score range: 33–147
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.8Season APEX234

22.7Auto5.4

70.9Teleop29.1

36.8Endgame24.7

65Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	21
teleop	96	26
endgame	33	24
foul	0	0
total	168	71

Result

Final score

168 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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