Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.48 – 75.83

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.5 ±13.9

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 15.62Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 20.82Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 33.04Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.9 ±17.5

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 20.3Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9668Malfunctionz

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 36.77Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 18.76Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5276, 3824, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5276, 3824, 1466

Auto

13.9 19%

Teleop

26.3 37%

Endgame

31.2 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3814, 9668, 3138

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3814, 9668, 3138

Auto

13.1 17%

Teleop

38.6 50%

Endgame

25.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.5pts

Blue projected score75.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.3
Score range: 45–100
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.5Season APEX313.9

13.9Auto13.1

26.3Teleop38.6

31.2Endgame25.6

27Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	8
teleop	17	40
endgame	9	37
foul	5	0
total	42	85

Result

Final score

42 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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