Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.45 – 101.47

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.8 ±18.8

8778HSUWerx

Provisional

Season APEX 13.2Event APEX 8.48Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 35.92Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6774Oh-Kno Robo

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 2.05Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±12.7

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 39.27Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 49.58Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 12.62Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8778, 4504, 6774

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8778, 4504, 6774

Auto

13.5 29%

Teleop

21.8 47%

Endgame

11.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4013, 7525, 3824

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4013, 7525, 3824

Auto

11.9 11%

Teleop

69.8 65%

Endgame

25.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.5pts

Blue projected score101.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55
Score range: 25–122
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.8Season APEX360

13.5Auto11.9

21.8Teleop69.8

11.2Endgame25.5

70Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	49
teleop	27	128
endgame	36	16
foul	0	0
total	78	193

Result

Final score

78 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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