Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.55 – 54.49

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.5 ±12.2

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 33.83Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 82.87Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 19.85Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.6 ±16.3

1445Webb Spark

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 13.71Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 22.29Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 18.49Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1466, 3492, 7111

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1466, 3492, 7111

Auto

22.9 16%

Teleop

70.5 50%

Endgame

46.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1445, 3140, 5492

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1445, 3140, 5492

Auto

10.5 23%

Teleop

15.8 34%

Endgame

19.6 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.6pts

Blue projected score54.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.1
Score range: 33–158
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.5Season APEX196.6

22.9Auto10.5

70.5Teleop15.8

46.5Endgame19.6

119Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	18
teleop	93	14
endgame	46	20
foul	5	0
total	181	52

Result

Final score

181 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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