Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.84 – 157.05

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.1 ±19.2

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 44.15Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11275Defenders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 15.58Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11337Mystery Machines

Provisional

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 13.11Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.5 ±16.2

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 24.71Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 16.08Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 116.26Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 379, 11275, 11337

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 379, 11275, 11337

Auto

20.1 24%

Teleop

47.8 58%

Endgame

14.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7516, 5276, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7516, 5276, 6517

Auto

32.1 24%

Teleop

71.6 54%

Endgame

27.7 21%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score72.8pts

Blue projected score157.1pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.2
Score range: 52–178
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 114.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.1Season APEX366.5

20.1Auto32.1

47.8Teleop71.6

14.2Endgame27.7

56Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	39
teleop	47	100
endgame	43	77
foul	5	0
total	117	216

Result

Final score

117 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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