Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.37 – 74.48

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.5 ±12.4

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 26.98Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 186.21Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 79.18Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.5 ±13.5

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 12.59Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 64.04Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX -2.15Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3814, 4020, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3814, 4020, 4674

Auto

49.2 17%

Teleop

165.4 58%

Endgame

71.2 25%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7917, 3966, 1369

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7917, 3966, 1369

Auto

15.9 22%

Teleop

43.8 61%

Endgame

12.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score292.4pts

Blue projected score74.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.9
Score range: 54–312
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 113.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.5Season APEX350.5

49.2Auto15.9

165.4Teleop43.8

71.2Endgame12.1

42Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	29
teleop	129	46
endgame	66	10
foul	0	0
total	243	85

Result

Final score

243 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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