Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.73 – 55.5

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264 ±19.2

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 20.41Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5744RoboRunners

Provisional

Season APEX 64Event APEX -0.64Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9668Malfunctionz

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 36.96Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.2 ±17

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 18.87Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 36.32Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3843ROBO RACERS

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 0.31Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9152, 5744, 9668

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9152, 5744, 9668

Auto

12.1 22%

Teleop

19.1 35%

Endgame

23.0 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6302, 4013, 3843

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6302, 4013, 3843

Auto

4.3 15%

Teleop

11.7 41%

Endgame

12.5 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.7pts

Blue projected score55.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.2
Score range: 36–77
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 113.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264Season APEX260.2

12.1Auto4.3

19.1Teleop11.7

23Endgame12.5

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	9
teleop	33	50
endgame	19	17
foul	0	0
total	69	76

Result

Final score

69 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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