Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.74 – 45.03

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.8 ±13.5

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 8.76Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 84.6Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 129.38Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.9 ±16.6

4630Robodragons

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 12.83Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 19.02Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 13.18Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4265, 3102, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4265, 3102, 2783

Auto

45.2 21%

Teleop

120.0 55%

Endgame

52.0 24%

Strengths

· 2783 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4630, 3140, 7111

/ 100 compat

Projected

45 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4630, 3140, 7111

Auto

13.5 30%

Teleop

13.0 29%

Endgame

19.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score222.7pts

Blue projected score45pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 177.7
Score range: 25–243
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 112.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.8Season APEX217.9

45.2Auto13.5

120Teleop13

52Endgame19.1

31Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	15
teleop	134	33
endgame	55	37
foul	0	0
total	243	85

Result

Final score

243 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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