Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.88 – 108.72

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 71.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428 ±12.8

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 37.6Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 98.7Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 24.58Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.6 ±16.2

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 98.33Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 23.76Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6774Oh-Kno Robo

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX -13.37Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4504, 2393, 5492

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4504, 2393, 5492

Auto

23.1 15%

Teleop

82.0 54%

Endgame

48.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6517, 379, 6774

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6517, 379, 6774

Auto

27.9 31%

Teleop

49.8 55%

Endgame

12.8 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.9pts

Blue projected score108.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.2
Score range: 89–181
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 110.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428Season APEX423.6

23.1Auto27.9

82Teleop49.8

48.1Endgame12.8

33Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	22
teleop	60	165
endgame	65	60
foul	0	0
total	157	247

Result

Final score

157 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 71.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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