Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.33 – 49

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.3 ±16.3

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 9.18Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 31.4Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1445Webb Spark

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 12.75Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.8 ±18.8

8778HSUWerx

Provisional

Season APEX 13.2Event APEX 8.07Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11275Defenders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 20.48Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 20.45Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10137, 1466, 1445

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10137, 1466, 1445

Auto

7.5 14%

Teleop

29.9 57%

Endgame

15.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8778, 11275, 9097

/ 100 compat

Projected

49 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8778, 11275, 9097

Auto

22.4 45%

Teleop

14.1 28%

Endgame

13.7 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.3pts

Blue projected score49pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.3
Score range: 29–73
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 111.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.3Season APEX197.8

7.5Auto22.4

29.9Teleop14.1

15.5Endgame13.7

25Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	26
teleop	29	28
endgame	27	10
foul	0	0
total	71	64

Result

Final score

71 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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