Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.34 – 154.81

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.1 ±18.8

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 30.83Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 21.93Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11337Mystery Machines

Provisional

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 11.58Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.6 ±12.2

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 44.13Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 33.93Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 76.75Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1038, 7516, 11337

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1038, 7516, 11337

Auto

24.7 32%

Teleop

30.3 39%

Endgame

21.8 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7525, 4576, 3492

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7525, 4576, 3492

Auto

24.0 16%

Teleop

84.8 56%

Endgame

42.8 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.3pts

Blue projected score154.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.5
Score range: 44–175
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 109.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.1Season APEX460.6

24.7Auto24

30.3Teleop84.8

21.8Endgame42.8

50Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	33
teleop	42	111
endgame	36	63
foul	0	0
total	103	207

Result

Final score

103 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 45.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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