Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.67 – 158.28

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.7 ±14.8

1445Webb Spark

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 27.47Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 21.2Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 55Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.7 ±15.4

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 29.33Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 6.68Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 122.27Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1445, 7111, 7525

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1445, 7111, 7525

Auto

26.0 26%

Teleop

53.6 53%

Endgame

21.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2856, 6302, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2856, 6302, 6517

Auto

19.3 17%

Teleop

71.2 62%

Endgame

24.1 21%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.7pts

Blue projected score158.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.6
Score range: 80–182
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.7Season APEX405.7

26Auto19.3

53.6Teleop71.2

21.4Endgame24.1

7Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	6
teleop	80	39
endgame	8	5
foul	0	140
total	101	190

Result

Final score

101 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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