Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

64.05 – 57.26

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.6 ±18.6

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 19.36Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 34.52Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

547Falcon Engineering And Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 10.17Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.5 ±13.9

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 27.69Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 11.67Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 17.9Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5276, 2856, 547

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5276, 2856, 547

Auto

3.9 23%

Teleop

17.7 100%

Endgame

-4.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3959, 7917, 3824

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3959, 7917, 3824

Auto

15.9 23%

Teleop

31.7 46%

Endgame

21.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.1pts

Blue projected score57.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.8
Score range: 37–84
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 111.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.6Season APEX301.5

3.9Auto15.9

17.7Teleop31.7

-4.5Endgame21

25Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	10
teleop	16	26
endgame	8	13
foul	5	5
total	46	54

Result

Final score

46 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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