Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.79 – 57.6

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.8 ±17.5

3843ROBO RACERS

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 0.51Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 28.52Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 20.76Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.2 ±17

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -0.5Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 24.41Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9668Malfunctionz

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 33.69Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3843, 3138, 3140

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3843, 3138, 3140

Auto

16.9 31%

Teleop

23.7 43%

Endgame

14.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3984, 6302, 9668

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3984, 6302, 9668

Auto

-5.8 0%

Teleop

9.1 52%

Endgame

14.2 81%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.8pts

Blue projected score57.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.8
Score range: 30–78
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.8Season APEX220.2

16.9Auto-5.8

23.7Teleop9.1

14Endgame14.2

13Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	9
teleop	30	30
endgame	7	11
foul	0	0
total	46	50

Result

Final score

46 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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