Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.63 – 131.85

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.3 ±12.9

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 19.09Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 34.26Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 108.28Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.3 ±15.6

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 84.84Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 57.74Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3821Pirabots

Provisional

Season APEX 13.6Event APEX -10.73Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4265, 7111, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4265, 7111, 6517

Auto

17.1 12%

Teleop

99.4 70%

Endgame

26.2 18%

Strengths

· 6517 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3966, 4504, 3821

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3966, 4504, 3821

Auto

24.3 18%

Teleop

94.2 70%

Endgame

15.4 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.6pts

Blue projected score131.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.8
Score range: 111–183
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.3Season APEX363.3

17.1Auto24.3

99.4Teleop94.2

26.2Endgame15.4

89Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	9
teleop	51	11
endgame	17	5
foul	0	10
total	106	35

Result

Final score

106 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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