Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.1 – 79.83

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.7 ±16.5

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX -6.62Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 1.49Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4630Robodragons

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 18.23Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±16.5

11275Defenders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 19.07Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 23.14Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 37.62Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7428, 1369, 4630

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7428, 1369, 4630

Auto

5.6 47%

Teleop

-2.9 0%

Endgame

9.1 77%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11275, 1466, 4013

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11275, 1466, 4013

Auto

10.3 11%

Teleop

53.1 58%

Endgame

28.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score13.1pts

Blue projected score79.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.7
Score range: -8–101
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.7Season APEX284.8

5.6Auto10.3

-2.9Teleop53.1

9.1Endgame28.3

82Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	19
teleop	12	48
endgame	2	25
foul	0	0
total	24	92

Result

Final score

24 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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