Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.99 – 212.12

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.4 ±18.8

7516Louisville Centrons

Provisional

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 26.81Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 38.89Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8778HSUWerx

Provisional

Season APEX 13.2Event APEX 2.29Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 537.6 ±12.8

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 14.49Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 18.51Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 179.12Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7516, 5492, 8778

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7516, 5492, 8778

Auto

5.3 8%

Teleop

44.0 70%

Endgame

13.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9097, 3959, 4020

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9097, 3959, 4020

Auto

53.3 26%

Teleop

119.6 58%

Endgame

33.0 16%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68pts

Blue projected score212.1pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144.1
Score range: 48–232
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 113.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.4Season APEX537.6

5.3Auto53.3

44Teleop119.6

13.7Endgame33

82Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	55
teleop	6	116
endgame	22	66
foul	0	0
total	47	237

Result

Final score

47 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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