Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.49 – 88.58

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.7 ±13.9

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 41.1Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 40.37Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 22.02Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.6 ±14.5

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 52.09Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 22.83Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 13.66Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1038, 7111, 6302

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1038, 7111, 6302

Auto

5.0 6%

Teleop

47.4 60%

Endgame

26.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4504, 4013, 3814

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4504, 4013, 3814

Auto

7.6 9%

Teleop

52.2 61%

Endgame

26.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.5pts

Blue projected score88.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.9
Score range: 69–123
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.7Season APEX328.6

5Auto7.6

47.4Teleop52.2

26.7Endgame26.1

76Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	22
teleop	16	77
endgame	18	43
foul	10	0
total	57	142

Result

Final score

57 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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