Qualification · Qualification 3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
118.71 – 57.78
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
84 – 41
Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.2 ±17
Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 49.21Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 55.78Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
4630Robodragons
Provisional
Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 13.72Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.3 ±16.5
11337Mystery Machines
Provisional
Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 27.59Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 9.07Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 21.12Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 379, 4013, 4630
58
/ 100 compatProjected
118.7 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 379, 4013, 4630
Auto
19.5 16%
Teleop
67.0 55%
Endgame
34.8 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11337, 3984, 9097
40
/ 100 compatProjected
57.8 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 11337, 3984, 9097
Auto
18.0 33%
Teleop
22.8 42%
Endgame
14.0 26%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.97
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score118.7pts
Blue projected score57.8pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 60.9
- Score range
- 34–143
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
296.2Season APEX247.3
19.5Auto18
67Teleop22.8
34.8Endgame14
45Consistency37
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 5 | 19 |
| teleop | 41 | 15 |
| endgame | 38 | 7 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 84 | 41 |
Result
Final score
84 – 41
Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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