Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.68 – 83.79

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.8 ±16.3

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 31.2Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 37.76Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 37.72Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123 ±20.8

11275Defenders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 22.84Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3843ROBO RACERS

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 30.27Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4630Robodragons

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 30.68Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2856, 379, 4576

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2856, 379, 4576

Auto

8.0 12%

Teleop

33.2 51%

Endgame

23.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11275, 3843, 4630

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11275, 3843, 4630

Auto

14.9 17%

Teleop

40.9 46%

Endgame

32.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.7pts

Blue projected score83.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.9
Score range: 63–128
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.8Season APEX123

8Auto14.9

33.2Teleop40.9

23.3Endgame32.4

91Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	14
teleop	68	2
endgame	21	5
foul	0	0
total	101	21

Result

Final score

101 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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