Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.64 – 155.22

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.9 ±12.2

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 8.86Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 6.93Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2393Robotichauns

Season APEX 212.3Event APEX 104.85Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.1 ±16.2

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 151.28Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 0.79Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5744RoboRunners

Provisional

Season APEX 64Event APEX 3.15Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3824, 9097, 2393

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3824, 9097, 2393

Auto

21.8 17%

Teleop

77.7 60%

Endgame

30.8 24%

Strengths

· 2393 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4020, 7917, 5744

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4020, 7917, 5744

Auto

40.5 28%

Teleop

85.0 58%

Endgame

21.6 15%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.6pts

Blue projected score155.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.6
Score range: 100–176
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.9Season APEX375.1

21.8Auto40.5

77.7Teleop85

30.8Endgame21.6

160Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	58
teleop	58	111
endgame	53	57
foul	0	5
total	143	231

Result

Final score

143 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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