Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.95 – 14.28

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.7 ±12.8

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 47.93Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 61.43Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 52.59Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245 ±16.3

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX -11.2Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 26.49Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1445Webb Spark

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX -1.01Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5492, 1038, 3492

/ 100 compat

Projected

162 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5492, 1038, 3492

Auto

30.2 18%

Teleop

99.2 58%

Endgame

42.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1369, 9152, 1445

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1369, 9152, 1445

Auto

11.4 53%

Teleop

6.6 31%

Endgame

3.4 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score162pts

Blue projected score14.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.7
Score range: -7–183
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.7Season APEX245

30.2Auto11.4

99.2Teleop6.6

42.7Endgame3.4

46Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	53	8
endgame	50	14
foul	0	10
total	121	47

Result

Final score

121 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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