Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.93 – 243.06

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.9 ±17

6774Oh-Kno Robo

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 14.38Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 9.53Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3959Mech Tech

Season APEX 147.7Event APEX 38.02Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.3 ±11.9

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 34.53Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 101.41Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 107.12Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6774, 3814, 3959

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6774, 3814, 3959

Auto

11.6 17%

Teleop

24.7 36%

Endgame

31.7 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3138, 6517, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3138, 6517, 4065

Auto

28.2 13%

Teleop

151.1 72%

Endgame

31.0 15%

Strengths

· 4065 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.9pts

Blue projected score243.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.1
Score range: 41–264
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.9Season APEX630.3

11.6Auto28.2

24.7Teleop151.1

31.7Endgame31

50Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	39
teleop	16	172
endgame	11	77
foul	0	0
total	41	288

Result

Final score

41 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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