Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76 – 104.93

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.9 ±13.3

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 44.89Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 43.73Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX -12.62Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±16.5

3821Pirabots

Provisional

Season APEX 13.6Event APEX -6.06Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 44.18Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3102Tech-No-Tigers

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 66.81Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4504, 7525, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4504, 7525, 1466

Auto

11.6 15%

Teleop

65.7 87%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3821, 4576, 3102

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3821, 4576, 3102

Auto

22.5 20%

Teleop

55.1 49%

Endgame

35.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76pts

Blue projected score104.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.9
Score range: 56–125
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.9Season APEX227.5

11.6Auto22.5

65.7Teleop55.1

-2.2Endgame35.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	28
teleop	54	36
endgame	50	13
foul	5	0
total	132	77

Result

Final score

132 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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