Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.22 – 62.65

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.3 ±17

5744RoboRunners

Provisional

Season APEX 64Event APEX 9.13Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 5.64Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 0.45Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.4 ±18.4

547Falcon Engineering And Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX -5.98Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9668Malfunctionz

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 36.81Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7111RAD Robotics

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 31.82Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5744, 9097, 4265

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5744, 9097, 4265

Auto

4.8 0%

Teleop

-19.1 100%

Endgame

11.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 547, 9668, 7111

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 547, 9668, 7111

Auto

12.0 16%

Teleop

47.9 62%

Endgame

17.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score15.2pts

Blue projected score62.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.4
Score range: -6–84
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.3Season APEX223.4

4.8Auto12

-19.1Teleop47.9

11Endgame17.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	4	54
endgame	6	13
foul	0	0
total	22	82

Result

Final score

22 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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