Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.9 – 36.16

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.1 ±15

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 13.94Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 34.78Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 68.18Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.9 ±17.7

11337Mystery Machines

Provisional

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 9.44Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3824HVA RoHAWKtics

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 4.85Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 21.87Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1369, 6302, 10137

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1369, 6302, 10137

Auto

16.9 24%

Teleop

32.0 45%

Endgame

22.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11337, 3824, 2856

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11337, 3824, 2856

Auto

5.9 100%

Teleop

-4.1 0%

Endgame

3.9 68%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.9pts

Blue projected score36.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.7
Score range: 14–139
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 70 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.1Season APEX205.9

16.9Auto5.9

32Teleop-4.1

22.4Endgame3.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	13
teleop	3	27
endgame	1	11
foul	5	0
total	19	51

Result

Final score

19 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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