Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.86 – 139.45

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327 ±18

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 122.4Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4630Robodragons

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 17.73Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6774Oh-Kno Robo

Provisional

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 6.73Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.9 ±13.5

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 31.83Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 39.4Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 68.22Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4020, 4630, 6774

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4020, 4630, 6774

Auto

24.5 17%

Teleop

80.0 54%

Endgame

43.3 29%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5276, 4674, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5276, 4674, 1038

Auto

27.8 18%

Teleop

98.5 64%

Endgame

26.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.9pts

Blue projected score139.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.4
Score range: 119–167
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327Season APEX416.9

24.5Auto27.8

80Teleop98.5

43.3Endgame26.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	30
teleop	111	72
endgame	49	67
foul	10	5
total	220	174

Result

Final score

220 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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