Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.58 – 47.29

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 505.9 ±12.4

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 55.97Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 97.54Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 10.07Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.3 ±17

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 10.74Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3843ROBO RACERS

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 39.81Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX -3.26Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3492, 2783, 3140

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3492, 2783, 3140

Auto

30.4 20%

Teleop

93.2 60%

Endgame

31.7 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3814, 3843, 7428

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3814, 3843, 7428

Auto

7.1 13%

Teleop

17.2 31%

Endgame

31.2 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.6pts

Blue projected score47.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.3
Score range: 27–184
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

505.9Season APEX229.3

30.4Auto7.1

93.2Teleop17.2

31.7Endgame31.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	5
teleop	115	1
endgame	60	11
foul	0	0
total	234	17

Result

Final score

234 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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