Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.92 – 157.86

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 82.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.4 ±14.7

547Falcon Engineering And Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 31.2Event APEX 6Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 24.63Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 54.29Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.4 ±15.8

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 8.67Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 94.9Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2856Planetary Drive

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 54.29Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 547, 4674, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 547, 4674, 6517

Auto

11.3 26%

Teleop

28.3 65%

Endgame

3.8 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1466, 1038, 2856

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1466, 1038, 2856

Auto

18.7 16%

Teleop

73.6 63%

Endgame

25.0 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score157.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.9
Score range: 64–179
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.4Season APEX335.4

11.3Auto18.7

28.3Teleop73.6

3.8Endgame25

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	9
teleop	120	36
endgame	20	29
foul	0	5
total	171	79

Result

Final score

171 – 79

Prediction missed · off by 82.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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