Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.66 – 119.49

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.1 ±13.5

4020Cyber Tribe

Season APEX 249Event APEX 99.43Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4576Red Nation Robotics

Season APEX 115.6Event APEX 36.01Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10137RoboKats

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 86.22Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.8 ±15.6

4013Clockwork Mania

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 16.18Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9668Malfunctionz

Provisional

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 17.09Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2783Engineers of Tomorrow

Season APEX 275.1Event APEX 86.22Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4020, 4576, 10137

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4020, 4576, 10137

Auto

33.2 15%

Teleop

130.9 59%

Endgame

59.4 27%

Strengths

· 4020 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4013, 9668, 2783

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4013, 9668, 2783

Auto

14.6 12%

Teleop

63.2 52%

Endgame

44.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221.7pts

Blue projected score119.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.2
Score range: 100–241
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 104.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.1Season APEX441.8

33.2Auto14.6

130.9Teleop63.2

59.4Endgame44.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	42
teleop	146	109
endgame	55	43
foul	0	0
total	252	194

Result

Final score

252 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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