Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.69 – 69

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 60.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.6 ±19.2

11275Defenders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 43.7Event APEX 28.57Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5744RoboRunners

Provisional

Season APEX 64Event APEX 18Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3140Flagship

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 29.12Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.7 ±13.5

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 28.57Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 22.43Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 18Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11275, 5744, 3140

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11275, 5744, 3140

Auto

13.1 17%

Teleop

36.5 48%

Endgame

26.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3492, 3138, 4504

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3492, 3138, 4504

Auto

12.9 19%

Teleop

31.3 45%

Endgame

25.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.7pts

Blue projected score69pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.7
Score range: 48–97
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.6Season APEX450.7

13.1Auto12.9

36.5Teleop31.3

26.7Endgame25.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	24
teleop	13	97
endgame	0	11
foul	5	15
total	32	147

Result

Final score

32 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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