Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.51 – 46.3

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.7 ±12.2

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 23.57Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3966Gryphon Command

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 38.29Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 27.65Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.1 ±15

3984Topper Robotics

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 10.01Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5276Edgar Allan Ohms

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 12Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 24.29Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5492, 3966, 7525

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5492, 3966, 7525

Auto

11.7 13%

Teleop

62.1 70%

Endgame

15.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3984, 5276, 3814

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3984, 5276, 3814

Auto

10.6 24%

Teleop

20.8 46%

Endgame

13.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.5pts

Blue projected score46.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.2
Score range: 25–111
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 114.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.7Season APEX239.1

11.7Auto10.6

62.1Teleop20.8

15.3Endgame13.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	5
teleop	117	32
endgame	32	21
foul	5	5
total	169	63

Result

Final score

169 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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