Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.92 – 192.72

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.7 ±16.5

7428Gigawatts

Season APEX 82.8Event APEX 3.25Rank 44Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5744RoboRunners

Provisional

Season APEX 64Event APEX 10.9Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4504B. C. Robotics

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 47.77Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.1 ±13

5492Winner's Circle Robo Jockey's

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 31.04Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7917Frontier

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 18.56Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 143.12Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7428, 5744, 4504

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7428, 5744, 4504

Auto

19.1 33%

Teleop

23.4 41%

Endgame

15.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5492, 7917, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5492, 7917, 4065

Auto

27.6 15%

Teleop

99.1 53%

Endgame

60.8 32%

Strengths

· 4065 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.9pts

Blue projected score192.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.8
Score range: 38–217
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 133.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.7Season APEX408.1

19.1Auto27.6

23.4Teleop99.1

15.1Endgame60.8

20Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	29
teleop	36	99
endgame	15	42
foul	0	0
total	63	170

Result

Final score

63 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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